Credit: Breaking Media

Daniel Lewis

Tue 26 May 2026 17:10, UK

Tottenham Hotspur endured a dreadful 2025-26 campaign, but they should not have finished as low as they did.

That is based on new findings from a supercomputer, which provides just a glimmer of hope for a brighter 2026-27.

Roberto De Zerbi succeeded in his mission of keeping Tottenham in the Premier League at the expense of West Ham United.

But back-to-back 17th-placed finishes – making it the worst successive seasons for Spurs in over a century – means drastic improvement is required.

Another relegation battle simply will not do for Spurs, but hopefully that will not be the case under De Zerbi.

Tottenham performed well enough to finish higher than 17th

Tottenham fans are demanding change at the top of the club after another shockingly bad domestic season.

Last year’s Europa League success helped paper over the cracks, but there was no chance of that this time around.

But as per Opta Analyst, Tottenham did not deserve to finish as low as they did in the Premier League this season.

Using a model that simulates the number of goals scored by each side in a match based on expected goals (xG), with each match then simulated 10,000 times, Spurs should have finished in 15th.

This ‘expected finish’ model is a good way of determining how good or bad a side actually was.

For example, there were games Spurs did plenty to win but just failed to put away some glorious chances. The opposite is also true, of course.

Spurs should have accumulated 45 points on this basis, as opposed to the 41 they actually accrued over the 38 games.

The Lilywhites’ expected goal difference is down as minus 12, rather than minus nine.

The stat that should get Vinai Venkatesham and Johan Lange instantly sacked

There are quite simply no excuses from those high up at Tottenham, with Vinai Venkatesham and Johan Lange coming under particular scrutiny.

Tottenham have finished as low as 17th in successive seasons for the first time since 1915. Just let that sink in for a second.

The three wins Tottenham managed at home this season, meanwhile, is the joint-fewest by a team to survive the drop in Premier League history, along with Hull City in 2008-09.

The fact performances were perhaps slightly better than the points tally suggests is positive, but Tottenham quite simply cannot afford to sleepwalk towards another relegation battle.