Credit: Imago

Daniel Lewis

Sat 2 May 2026 17:40, UK

Tottenham Hotspur have seen their Premier League relegation chances shift in a new supercomputer update after Saturday afternoon’s results.

The weekend’s action got off to a bad start for Spurs as they saw Leeds win 3-1 against Burnley to move nine points clear of danger.

However, West Ham were beaten 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday in a massive result in the relegation dogfight.

That loss for the Hammers means Spurs can now climb out of the bottom three with a win away at Aston Villa on Sunday.

And with Spurs having that game in hand at Villa Park to come, their chances of survival have been given a massive shot in the arm.

Tottenham’s chances of survival increase thanks to Brentford

Roberto De Zerbi got lift-off last weekend at the third attempt as Tottenham defeated Wolves at Molineux.

That came on the same day that West Ham themselves won late on, overcoming Everton 2-1 at the London Stadium.

Spurs are in need of favours and they have now got one of those thanks to Brentford beating West Ham soundly at the Gtech Community Stadium.

It means that Tottenham’s fate is back in their own hands with four games left to play. That starts with a win over Villa on Sunday.

And according to Opta Analyst‘s latest supercomputer prediction, Spurs now have a 50.07 per cent chance of being relegated from the top flight.

That compares to 60.22 per cent prior to Saturday’s action, with West Ham’s chances increasing from 36.84 per cent to 48.84 per cent.

For what it is worth, Nottingham Forest’s chances of being relegated are considered as low as 1.02 per cent, while Leeds are at 0.06 per cent.

What are Tottenham’s chances of beating Aston Villa?

As per Opta, Spurs have a 19.1 per cent chance of beating Aston Villa on Sunday evening, compared to a 59.9 per cent chance for the Villans. A draw therefore has a 21 per cent likelihood of happening.

Interestingly, none of the last 21 Premier League meetings between Aston Villa (seven wins) and Spurs (14) have finished level.

In the competition’s history, only Chelsea against Crystal Palace (26 games between September 1997 and February 2024) has had a longer run without a draw.

The big question is whether a draw would be considered a positive result for the Lilywhites in the West Midlands.

With a home clash with Leeds United to follow, you have to say four points from those two games should be the target.

Then comes a trip to Chelsea and a visit from Everton on the final day. Thanks to Brentford’s win over West Ham, the picture looks far rosier all of a sudden.