Thomas Frank will be concerned as worrying supercomputer prediction emerges after Tottenham vs Man United
Tottenham have retained a small chance of making the Premier League’s Champions League spots after drawing to Manchester United on Saturday.
Two stoppage-time goals saw Tottenham draw 2-2 with Manchester United at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to make it consecutive games without victory in the Premier League.
Richarlison‘s 91st-minute header looked to have completed a miraculous turnaround for Thomas Frank‘s side, but Matthijs de Ligt rose highest to head in a 96th-minute equaliser.
Tottenham’s home form was again criticised after the draw with Manchester United, with the Lilywhites now without a win in their last five Premier League fixtures at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Since moving in 2019, Tottenham have lost 41 Premier League games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – an appalling number.
Supercomputer predicts 11th place for Tottenham
Frank would have been happy to see his side come out swinging in the second half, fighting back from a goal down to take the lead.
But ultimately, it was a soft goal that saw De Ligt equalise, and it will go down as more points dropped in the Premier League this season.
At fifth place, Tottenham are not necessarily in a bad position, but such are the margins tight between second and even 12th, just one bad weekend could see Frank’s side drop as many as seven places in the table.
Opta‘s supercomputer will update throughout the season, and after Saturday’s draw, it has predicted that Tottenham will finish 11th in the league this season.
Frank’s side have just a 0.21 per cent chance of winning the title at this stage, while they retain only an 8.48 per cent chance of making it into the Champions League qualification spots.
The stats behind Tottenham’s poor start
Tottenham fans may, understandably, question why their team has been predicted to finish so low down the table and behind the likes of Newcastle United and Crystal Palace, despite currently sitting well above them.
But it is the underlying stats behind the performances which are flagging up on the supercomputer’s model.
| Tottenham | Premier League 2025-26 |
| Points | 18 |
| Goals scored | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 10 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 11 |
| Expected goals against (xGA) | 15.2 |
| Expected points | 11.3 |
Just five teams in the Premier League have produced fewer expected goals (xG) this season than Tottenham, who have scored 19 goals from just 11 expected.
And only six teams have conceded fewer expected goals against (xGA) than Frank’s side, who have conceded just 10 goals from 15.2 expected.
The stats are just that, for now. But xG often has a way of catching up throughout the season, and Tottenham may well find themselves in trouble should they not dramatically improve.
Enjoyed this article? Stay connected with all the latest Tottenham Hotspur news, updates, and behind-the-scenes content by following us on our new Instagram account – @tottenhamnews247