View: Stats suggest Tottenham swoop for Jarrod Bowen should be avoided
West Ham selling to arch-rivals Tottenham just doesn’t sound right.
The East and North London sides are bitter rivals and transfers between the two clubs are rare. In fact, a transfer with Tottenham and any other London club has become a rarity in the modern game – unless it is a Chelsea manager, of course.
Jarrod Bowen is one of West Ham’s stars, the scorer of the last-minute goal in Prague which ended the club’s 43-year wait for a major trophy. And his heroics have clearly captured some attention.
According to The Athletic (24 June), Tottenham are interested in signing Bowen if a potential swoop for Leicester’s Harvey Barnes does not materialise. Bowen is perhaps the better of the two players, and Spurs prioritising Barnes perhaps suggests even they don’t believe they could tempt West Ham to sell.
However, in the modern game of football, you can never say never, and where there is a will, there is a way. If Spurs do have that will to sign Bowen, perhaps a big-money move would tempt the West Ham board. Also, Bowen himself could be keen on a move away.
Last season the English winger scored six times and provided six assists in 38 Premier League games which is an impressive return for a side fighting at the wrong end of the table. This season would also be considered a poor one by Bowen’s standards.
The season before he hit 12 goals and 12 assists in 36 games, exactly double his output in fewer appearances.
And while he is clearly a player of high quality as his goalscoring record suggests, a deeper dive into the stats reveal that Bowen is a signing Spurs should avoid, as he is not what Postecoglou needs.
The Australian boss enjoys utilising wide wingers in a 4-3-3 system who can threaten space in behind. This is something that Bowen is not best suited to doing.
Bowen is best in and around the penalty area where he can pose a goalscoring threat, Postecoglou’s system requires a wide winger who can isolate his full-back and get past him.
As per stats provided by FBREF, this is something Bowen is not brilliant at. Last season Bowen attempted just 3.28 take-ons per 90 and was only successful on one occasion per 90, placing him in the 21st percentile compared to his positional peers in the league.
This gave him a successful take-on percentage of just 30.5 per cent, leaving him in the bottom ten per cent of Premier League wingers and attacking midfielders. As well as this, transfermrkt shows that at times Bowen would operate as an attacking midfielder, second-striker or centre-forward. Postecoglou needs a natural wide man.
The graph shows a comparison of Bowen and Tottenham’s current wide-right option and the difference in their play style. Kulusevski is much more direct and often more successful with his take-ons than West Ham’s 25-year-old star.
Overall, a transfer between Tottenham and West Ham doesn’t feel like a right fit and Bowen in Postecoglou’s system reflects that same thinking. With the extortionate fee West Ham would likely charger their Premier League rivals for Bowen this is not a transfer the club should be targeting.