Tottenham News Scout: James Ward-Prowse could prove to be a costly expense for Tottenham
Tottenham News is delighted to welcome Matthew Chadder as our exclusive columnist for our ‘Spurs Scout’ features. Each week, he’ll be providing his expertise on researching players to give insight on the biggest talking points at Spurs…
Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy loves to shop in the lower leagues of English football and find himself some value.
When a team is relegated from the Premier League, there is always one thought on the minds of those associated with the clubs who remain in England’s top flight, who could we take on the cheap?
Losing out on the amount of revenue being in the Premier League brings to these unfortunate clubs forces them to sell their prized assets, often at a cut price.
Levy has already taken advantage of this once during the current transfer window when he swooped to complete the signing of attacking midfielder James Maddison from Leicester – with the Foxes also losing star forward Harvey Barnes to Newcastle.
And when Southampton were relegated to the Championship following a dismal campaign, it was clear that the future of James Ward-Prowse would become a topic of conversation and his resolve to stay loyal would be tested.
West Ham have already seen offers for the 28-year-old knocked back by the Saints and now Spurs appear set to test the waters.
The Sunday Mirror have reported in their print edition (page 69, 6 August) that Tottenham are ready to make a move for the midfielder after scouts watched him on several occasions at the back end of last season.
Here, Spurs Scout has had a look at whether Ward-Prowse would be a smart signing for Ange Postecoglou and what he would bring to the club.
Superpower – Set-piece specialist
It wouldn’t be an analysis of Ward-Prowse if his ability from dead-ball scenarios was not mentioned. When it comes to creating or scoring goals from set-piece situations, there is not a player in England more dangerous than him.
In his time, David Beckham was known as the king of a free-kick, although it might be fair to suggest that the Southampton captain is a rival in that regard.
Ward-Prowse described Beckham as his “idol” when speaking back in 2021 about the Manchester United and Real Madrid legend.
“He’s an absolute legend, a great of the game, a huge role model and inspiration for me even now – and I’m 27,” Ward-Prowse said, as reported by Manchester Evening News (23 December 2021).
Beckham scored 18 goals from direct free-kicks throughout his career in England’s top flight and Ward-Prowse is now just one behind the former England hero, but will of course need to return to the same division if he is to beat it.
And the stats support the notion that the Southampton academy graduate and one-club man is the most deadly set-piece taker in any of England’s top four leagues, including the Premier League.
As per fbref, last season Ward-Prowse was in the top one per cent compared to his positional peers in the division when it came to dead-ball passes, which led to a shot attempt (1.58 per 90). As well as this, he was in the top eight per cent compared to other midfielders in the league for the number of his dead-ball passes which led to a goal (0.08 per 90).
His average shot distance was 27.90 yards and he would have 0.45 shots per 90 from free-kicks, placing him in the top two per cent when it came to this particular statistic.
The image above shows one position Ward-Prowse scored a free-kick from away at Old Trafford.
This image is from a free-kick Ward-Prowse scored away at Wolves, much more central and from further out than the one at Manchester United, illustrating the range of positions he can threaten from.
In addition to shooting from free-kicks and troubling the goalkeeper, he was also in the top one per cent for midfielders playing in the Premier League last season when it came to the number of passes he made from free-kicks (3.95), demonstrating that he could offer various threats when standing over the ball.
Very few players possess the ability to strike fear into the opposition when placing the ball down for a free kick which is being taken from 30 yards, and Ward-Prowse is one of them.
Weakness – On the ball
While it is clear that Ward-Prowse knows exactly what he is doing when operating a dead-ball situation, on the ball the stats suggest he does not possess the quality needed of a midfielder playing for a top-six side.
Postecoglou likes midfielders who are dynamic on the ball and can thrive in his fast-paced, high-energy and possession-based style of football. While Ward-Prowse might be helpful to have around when Harry Kane or Son Heung-min are taken out on the edge of the box, the stats suggest that he might not be as effective elsewhere.
As per fbref, the midfielder was in the bottom 10 per cent of his Premier League positional peers from last season when it came to the number of take-ons he attempted (0.53 per 90), take-ones he completed (0.19 per 90) and his successful take-on percentage (35 per cent per 90).
He is not a player who will carry the ball forward either, once again underperforming in this regard. Although putting up slightly more impressive numbers here than his ability to beat a man, he was still in the bottom 20 per cent for the number of progressive carries (0.51 per 90), carries into the final third (0.72 per 90) and carries into the opposition penalty area he made (0.03 per 90).
Postecoglou also requires someone who can pass well, often making these passes over a short distance as his team look to build up the pitch. Ward-Prowse’s successful passing percentages over a short distance (90.5 per cent per 90), which left him in the 74th percentile, and medium distance (84.9 per cent per 90), which positioned him in the 49th percentile, suggests there are better players for the job.
How much would Ward-Prowse cost?
This is where a deal for the midfielder begins to make less sense.
The report in The Sunday Mirror states that “Southampton value him (Ward-Prowse) around the £40million mark,” and while this makes sense due to how much he brings to St Marys and his value to the club, it is a lot of money.
Considering the South-Coast side were relegated from the Premier League, many would have expected that price tag to dramatically decrease, but after seeing bids rejected from West Ham, it is clear they are standing strong on their price point.
Where would Ward-Prowse fit in at Tottenham?
Postecoglou will likely look to implement a midfield three when he gets his reign in North London officially underway and begins to mould the team to fit his footballing philosophy.
James Maddison, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur – upon his return from injury – are all players that supporters will expect to see line up in that midfield, which leaves the question, where would Ward-Prowse slot in?
And from a look at the stats, it is clear he would not displace any of those three. He is not a better passer than any of those three nor is he better on the ball, two things that are required in Postecoglou’s system.
As a result of this, he would likely fill in on the bench and act as a squad player, featuring in rotation.
Should Tottenham sign Ward-Prowse?
If the price was a lot less, and they had more room in midfield, this signing would make sense. However, the middle of the park is one of the areas of the pitch where they have the most options and £40million is a lot of money for a player who doesn’t quite fit the system.
While there are qualities Ward-Prowse could bring to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with it also being an opportunity for him to improve while playing around better players fighting higher up the table, it is a signing that just doesn’t make sense.
Tottenham are light at the back and need defensive reinforcements and this is where the money should be spent. The club already have four or five players better suited to the system they are set to play and the signing of Ward-Prowse is therefore one they should pass up on.
In other Tottenham News, John Wenham of Lilywhite Rose has exclusively shared his view on the signing of Alejo Veliz.