In The Money: Tottenham face loss of millions with Aston Villa as ‘unwitting victims’ of rival actions
Newcastle’s elimination from Europe after their loss to AC Milan could lead to Tottenham missing out on millions if potential qualification for the Champions League comes down to needing a fifth place.
With the premier European tournament set to expand to 36 teams from next season two leagues will gain an extra qualification place, but the Magpies 2-1 defeat in the San Siro on 13 December saw them join Manchester United in falling at the group stage.
That saw the coefficient gap between Germany and Italy in the first two spots and English in third grow wider, with seven Italian teams still in European competition to cement that scenario [Dale Johnson, 13 December].
The Athletic’s Adam Crafton reacted to the development on Twitter (14 December), suggesting: “Aston Villa and Spurs may be the unwitting victims of this, and it probably rules Chelsea out of the Champions League race altogether if there’s no 5th place.”
Tottenham currently sit fifth in the Premier League and face a fight to make the top four, even more so than Aston Villa who are currently third and one win from the top of the table.
The difference between the Champions League and the Europa League in terms of cash benefits remains huge, and with the TV money increasing by a third to £4.2billion for next season’s competition according to The Times (9 May) Spurs could miss out on millions if they aren’t involved.
Clearly, Tottenham could have had a say in the matter themselves if it weren’t for the eighth-placed finish last season as Antonio Conte’s reign ended ingloriously and the club limped through with Christian Stellini and Ryan Mason before landing Ange Postecoglou in the summer.
The Australian needs financial backing in the January window as it is with a major injury crisis in the squad, but a lack of European football this term has had an effect on the budget.
He is far more likely to get what he needs next summer if he can engineer a return to the top table in Europe, and while that seemed a given during his explosive start to the season a run of just four points since the start of November has derailed that significantly.
Even before the expanded competition and major increase in TV money the Champions League was worth plenty just for qualifying, with this season’s 32 sides receiving a starting fee of €15.64million [£13.47m] according to UEFA’s own figures (7 July).
In addition all clubs earn a coefficient fee which this year gave each a share of €600.6m [£517.5m], based on their performances in Europe over the past decade, with awards ranging from €1.137m to €36.38m [£971,150 to £31.3m].
With Spurs currently ranked 19th in Europe [UEFA] they would have likely received somewhere in the middle of that range before any games had yet been played.
Prize money is lucrative on a per-game basis in the group stage and with each further round of qualification so the same performance as Tottenham’s most recent run in the competition to the last 16 two seasons ago, where they won three and drew two of their group games would have been worth another €19.86m in this year’s edition [£17.11m].
And a further share of the market pool of €300.3m [£258.7m] which cannot be calculated until after the final still factors in after that.
So even a middling performance would be expected to bank the club somewhere in the region of £50m before the match-day revenue generated by the extra fixtures comes into consideration, which is reported to be worth around £6m per-game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium according to The Athletic.
It isn’t hard to see why top teams depend so heavily on regular qualification to the Champions League, and with the battle for the Premier League top four always tight the extra spot which Spurs currently occupy could end up being the difference this term.
Spurs may have contributed to their own downfall by not qualifying this year, but English sides outperforming their Italian equivalents could have opened the door wider to Postecoglou in his first campaign, and the greater financial freedom he would therefore be afforded by Daniel Levy as a result.
The extra place is looking unlikely and unless Arsenal and Manchester City make it deep into the competition might have already gone, so the pressure will be on to turn results around and push back towards the top of the table.
In other Tottenham news, Spurs have power in negotiations to land a key defensive recruit if they want to use it.